Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
